Last May, SharonME hit the $10,000 High Roller Coverall
Jackpot at BingoMania in 47 balls. Does that happen often? Answer: Not really.
Not bloody likely at all.
The chances of a coverall in 47 balls is .00000063. That’s
1 in 1,587,301.59.
Yep. 1 chance in 1,587,301. The odds
of an individual being struck by lightning each year In the U.S. is about
300,000 to 1.
You are 5 times more likely to be struck by lightening.
You hear references to the odds every day in many different
contexts. Listening to the evening news you will hear the probability (or
likelihood) of whether it will rain the next day.
In Bingo
the variables that determine whether you win or lose are made up of several key
factors:
§
How
many PLAYERS are playing the game
§
How
many cards OTHERS purchase
§
How
many cards YOU purchase
§
What
type of PATTERN you are trying to cover
§
Jackpot
BALL RESTRICTIONS on number of balls called in order to win
For example: if there are 2000 cards purchased in a game and
you have 20 cards your chances of winning in a regular, guaranteed jackpot-type
game are 1in 100. A winning strategy? Play the best guaranteed jackpots at off
hours. Less players means less competition.
And although it’s true that you increase you chances of
winning by buying more cards, it’s less than you think. Take our example of
2000 cards in play. Your odds go from 1 in 2000 to 1 in 400 if you’re playing 5
cards. You’re also losing money 5 times as fast and you’ve only decreased your
odds of losing from 1999 in 2000 to 1995 in 2000. But more cards is just more
fun, isn’t it?
Is your head spinning yet? If not, here’s one last example.
Compare a game that costs $.25 a card and pays $50, with about 100 cards in
play to a game that costs $.25 and pays $100 with 200 cards in play. Your odds
of winning are twice as good in the first instance, 1:100 (compared to 1:200)
but the payout in the second is twice as good ($50 to .25 vs $100 to .25—making
the games about even. Are you playing to win, or for money? It’s also worth
factoring in chat games, bonuses and loyalty programs.
Add to the
competition from other players the probability of anyone winning a
jackpot at all. Of the factors listed above ‘Jackpot Ball Restrictions’ will
have the greatest impact on a players chance to win in any particular game.
If the Jackpot is for a coverall in 35 balls—well—it’s not happening. The
probability? 0.00000000. As in, impossible.
How can you
figure the odds? If you are a BingoDaily member you have access to our Jackpot
Calculator. Click here to sign in or join.
In many
cases players jump into games with very poor odds, spend their remaining cash
balance and the jackpot never goes because the ball call restrictions are,
well, astronomical.
Most online
Bingo sites offer a range of games that have two key differences. Most games
have a fixed or GUARANTEED payout cash prize. Make sure before you buy your
next batch of cards for a game that you know what you are playing for.
If the game
promises a potential progressive or huge jackpot prize carefully check out the
ball call restrictions to see if you have a hope and a prayer to even win.
It’s all about balance.
Pick a site with a range of games; big jackpots and very
little chance to get them to smaller jackpots that people actually win. Spend a
little in the big jackpot. After all, statistically you are as likely to win
with one card as with 5. Spend more where your chances are better. Some typical
sites:
Astro Bingo has that typical type of range—staggered from
$10,000 in 47, $5000 in 48, progressive jackpots (won about every 2 weeks) to
guaranteed jackpots.
BingoTropics offers $5000
coverall in 50 calls as well as a mix of chat and guaranteed jackpots.
Groovy
Bingo has the same type of mix; un unattainable $100,000 coverall jackpot in 45
balls, with more reasonable progressive jackpots in the 54 ball range and
guaranteed $20.00 jackpots.
The moral of this story? Unless you want to constantly refer
to your calculator, be there for the good time you are sure to have.
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Players, do
you have a budget or a strategy for playing? Share your experiences with us. If
we publish yours, you’ll get a t-shirt.